bigbirdluca
0xdbfdc9e624fe721df4ec4190f6c3f2d1d60457bc
- Realised P&L
- $-7.9k
- Volume
- $185.1k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.062Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$595.64at 0.335Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$539.25at 0.360Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$501.05at 0.758Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$273.99at 0.315EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-26 22:03 | Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 05-25 18:58 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.01877 | $3.75 |
| 05-25 18:56 | Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.65 | $25.35 |
| 05-25 18:50 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.8k |
| 01-29 14:11 | Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.89924572 | $899.25 |
| 01-28 00:09 | Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.36 | $34.99 |
| 01-28 00:07 | Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k? | SELL | 0.75 | $375.00 |
| 01-28 00:07 | Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1225681818 | $2.16 |
| 01-25 15:40 | Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.36 | $108.00 |
| 01-25 15:40 | Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | BUY | 0.1770599187 | $100.00 |
| 01-25 15:39 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.32 | $25.37 |
| 01-25 15:39 | EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7 | $210.00 |
| 01-25 15:39 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.16 |
| 01-25 15:37 | Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2777895356 | $300.00 |
| 01-25 15:37 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3299999978 | $100.00 |