aff3
0xe52c0a1327a12edc7bd54ea6f37ce00a4ca96924
- Realised P&L
- $255.2k
- Volume
- $15.21M
- Markets traded
- 239
- Open portfolio
- $455.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded239
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.1kat 0.795Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$23.2kat 0.939Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$18.3kat 0.847Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$16.9kat 0.918Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$16.1kat 0.893Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 14:49 | Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9699642064 | $10.5k |
| 07-31 10:06 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.893528292 | $3.1k |
| 07-31 10:05 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.939739085 | $16.2k |
| 07-31 10:05 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299674115 | $15.0k |
| 07-31 10:00 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9157479085 | $5.5k |
| 07-31 09:51 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 07-31 09:51 | Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599031578 | $1.3k |
| 07-31 09:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $945.32 |
| 07-31 09:49 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $13.9k |
| 07-30 16:32 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $11.1k |
| 07-29 13:32 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $1.3k |
| 07-27 10:56 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $173.90 |
| 07-26 20:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $169.50 |
| 07-26 20:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $966.28 |
| 07-24 10:35 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.9k |