Sardinianshepherd
0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7
- Realised P&L
- $80.0k
- Volume
- $3.81M
- Markets traded
- 1,587
- Open portfolio
- $62.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,587
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.0kat 0.890Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$7.7kat 0.901US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.360Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$4.1kat 0.576US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.653Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.982 | $608.84 |
| 08-02 23:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.68 | $160.53 |
| 08-02 22:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.78 | $308.37 |
| 08-02 22:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 22:06 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.986 | $986.00 |
| 08-02 22:05 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.985 | $357.56 |
| 08-02 16:56 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9647368902 | $590.74 |
| 08-02 14:39 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.93 | $624.76 |
| 08-02 14:33 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.66 | $660.00 |
| 08-02 11:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $900.00 |
| 08-02 11:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.954 | $214.63 |
| 08-02 10:13 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.48548305 | $970.97 |
| 08-02 10:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.760525 | $760.52 |
| 08-02 10:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $890.00 |
| 08-02 10:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $890.00 |