nada
0xf4f3476be6e5b2de3a7e1bc849ff4b047bef330d
- Realised P&L
- $-7.8k
- Volume
- $9.97M
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $35.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.887 | $33.1k | +$15.3k |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.976 | $1.5k | +$218.24 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.675 | $736.45 | +$114.56 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.538 | 0.920 | $140.84 | +$58.47 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.544 | 0.284 | $26.97 | −$24.71 |
| US recession in 2025? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.66 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.22 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.23 |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.9kat 0.1752024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$47.7kat 0.344Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
- +$33.6kat 0.4212024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$25.4kat 0.857Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$18.2kat 0.245Trump wins every swing state?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 18:21 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.42 | $41.22 |
| 07-13 06:49 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.45 | $19.16 |
| 05-04 14:36 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $50.65 |
| 05-04 14:35 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.5553769972 | $8.4k |
| 05-04 05:02 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.52 | $5.72 |
| 05-04 04:57 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.544 | $51.68 |
| 04-29 16:16 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.524 | $176.06 |
| 04-29 16:16 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.5298855003 | $1.1k |
| 04-20 04:36 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.917326323 | $585.36 |
| 04-12 22:26 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.4338645967 | $1.1k |
| 04-12 22:10 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.4234374033 | $1.1k |
| 04-12 14:52 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.4013163469 | $2.5k |
| 04-12 05:16 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.411 | $65.76 |
| 04-12 05:07 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.412 | $33.34 |
| 04-12 05:07 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.4095417501 | $3.4k |