0xF699c3Dc4a1cA76D33E6db15eC6145cbdab112cF-1766074235023
0xf699c3dc4a1ca76d33e6db15ec6145cbdab112cf
- Realised P&L
- $-188.82
- Volume
- $15.2k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $67.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.925 | $22.56 | +$2.56 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.060 | $12.00 | −$32.00 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.955 | $11.37 | +$1.37 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.969 | $11.01 | +$1.01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.960 | $9.60 | +$0.79 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.908 | 0.965 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? · No | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will India join the Board of Peace? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.70 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$213.98 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.12at 0.929Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
- +$29.46at 0.010Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?
- +$25.85at 0.795Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
- +$24.27at 0.954Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
- +$22.00at 0.780Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-19 06:31 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 04-19 06:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.8099999854 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 06:30 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 06:29 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999664 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 06:28 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 04-19 06:27 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.0129999873 | $1.00 |
| 04-19 06:25 | Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $4.71 |
| 04-19 06:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 04-19 06:22 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.945 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 14:54 | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9079994915 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 14:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $4.00 |
| 04-18 14:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 14:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 02-25 20:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2277804383 | $98.45 |
| 02-25 20:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9897030891 | $499.97 |