.yumeko
0x0b13ffcfaa14fdf81196a961e1c5750b697a5957
- Realised P&L
- $34.7k
- Volume
- $2.12M
- Markets traded
- 364
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded364
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.535 | $1.8k | −$155.43 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.255 | $1.1k | +$250.98 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.110 | $195.43 | −$158.06 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.025 | $74.97 | −$426.43 |
| Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $22.07 | −$37.69 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.001 | $5.23 | −$392.67 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$559.09 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$496.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.4kat 0.217US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.051Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$3.5kat 0.351US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.5kat 0.221MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.972Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.8k |
| 07-31 14:22 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0389841766 | $82.14 |
| 07-31 14:21 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0378861466 | $312.46 |
| 07-31 13:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $2.41 |
| 07-29 11:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.003 | $158.10 |
| 07-27 16:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.244 | $3.7k |
| 07-27 16:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2448645137 | $2.3k |
| 07-27 16:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.9k |
| 07-27 11:56 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $49.00 |
| 07-22 19:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.009 | $100.80 |
| 07-22 15:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.009 | $200.07 |
| 07-18 19:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.048 | $204.08 |
| 07-18 19:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.046 | $92.37 |
| 07-15 17:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $326.40 |
| 07-15 14:39 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0449973333 | $674.96 |