Lolakis
0x401ee31e9ebf9ab9f6315cd95faca5f950436fc9
- Realised P&L
- $65.1k
- Volume
- $12.49M
- Markets traded
- 1,577
- Open portfolio
- $22.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,577
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $10.0k | +$15.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.669 | 0.655 | $5.5k | −$115.16 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.471 | 0.450 | $3.8k | −$175.80 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.675 | $1.2k | +$9.18 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.770 | $1.1k | −$27.68 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.140 | $162.40 | −$4.66 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.140 | $129.22 | −$42.69 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.061 | $123.00 | +$19.00 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.205 | $0.99 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.2kat 0.160Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
- +$5.6kat 0.963US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.130US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.130US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.256Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.21 |
| 08-02 17:14 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.14 | $51.60 |
| 08-02 16:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.79 | $20.64 |
| 08-02 16:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.79 | $205.40 |
| 08-02 16:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.79 | $260.70 |
| 08-02 16:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.67 | $308.20 |
| 08-02 16:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.79 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 16:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $1.2k |
| 08-02 16:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.64 | $694.41 |
| 08-02 15:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $438.56 |
| 08-02 15:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.63 | $765.59 |
| 08-02 15:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.64 | $1.2k |
| 08-02 13:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $155.43 |
| 08-02 13:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $223.78 |
| 08-02 13:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $156.11 |