whig
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
- Realised P&L
- $253.4k
- Volume
- $6.95M
- Markets traded
- 787
- Open portfolio
- $143.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded787
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.5kat 0.226Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$19.7kat 0.994MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$16.4kat 0.002US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$15.3kat 0.351Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$11.9kat 0.142Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 21:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $97.03 |
| 08-02 18:25 | Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 08-02 18:09 | Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | SELL | 0.4973991251 | $263.80 |
| 08-02 15:31 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? | SELL | 0.2417667006 | $1.8k |
| 08-02 15:29 | Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.3033709387 | $1.2k |
| 08-02 15:17 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%? | SELL | 0.8725443064 | $1.3k |
| 08-02 15:11 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.8072372119 | $9.3k |
| 08-02 04:01 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? | BUY | 0.354088785 | $303.10 |
| 08-02 02:20 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $35.00 |
| 08-02 01:58 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? | SELL | 0.4464950068 | $1.7k |
| 08-01 23:56 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.0998365499 | $79.51 |
| 08-01 21:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.2200600004 | $1.1k |
| 08-01 20:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.0k |
| 08-01 19:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.29 | $290.00 |