Sandoval1553
0x493cef47ca12db5c08fb55747d6cd279ebdb953e
- Realised P&L
- $351.82
- Volume
- $204.2k
- Markets traded
- 498
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded498
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$414.00at 0.611US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$407.61at 0.805Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$192.34at 0.808Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
- +$167.50at 0.606US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$154.00at 0.150Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:32 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $16.00 |
| 08-02 20:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-02 20:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-02 20:18 | Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.36 |
| 07-30 19:53 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $9.96 |
| 07-30 19:53 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | SELL | 0.996 | $19.92 |
| 07-30 19:53 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $19.92 |
| 07-30 19:53 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | SELL | 0.997 | $19.94 |
| 07-30 09:01 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.323 | $7.75 |
| 07-29 20:02 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $797.60 |
| 07-29 19:59 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 07-29 09:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.632 | $6.32 |
| 07-29 09:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 07-27 18:25 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 07-27 18:24 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.80 |