PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Cassiopeian

0x4b79e9c082e9abec83c9c0fa49e58dbfb0b547e6

Realised P&L
$-102.2k
Volume
$4.14M
Markets traded
160
Open portfolio
$2.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded160
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0190.016$1.2k$205.71
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1100.146$732.50+$182.50
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0140.013$212.76$15.15
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · No0.9020.714$192.26$50.71
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0600.596$37.84+$34.04
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.039$6.30$2.62
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.003$2.97$51.76
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.004$1.94$28.73
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0590.013$1.72$5.75
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? · Yes0.0590.005$0.51$4.97
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$54.73
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0940.000$0.00$428.42
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$5.76
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$54.73
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner · Top Esports0.0170.000$0.00$199.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-17 00:30Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.016$33.02
04-01 01:482026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?SELL0.001$0.15
04-01 01:452026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?SELL0.001$0.02
04-01 01:442026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?SELL0.0011643363$3.91
03-18 22:50Will another country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$1.6k
03-17 19:16Will another country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$1.0k
03-17 19:10Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.13$1.05
03-16 12:47Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.026$9.83
03-10 12:17Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.1$203.45
03-10 11:22Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$378.28
03-10 11:22Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$503.35
03-10 10:31Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?SELL0.9833171095$5.6k
03-06 02:10Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.015$0.87
03-06 02:10Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?SELL0.42$0.35
03-01 20:52Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?BUY0.45$4.10