0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7
- Realised P&L
- $292.5k
- Volume
- $69.67M
- Markets traded
- 6,350
- Open portfolio
- $281.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,350
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.9kat 0.084No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
- +$69.2kat 0.229Pacers vs. Cavaliers
- +$53.9kat 0.023Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
- +$53.7kat 0.091Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$52.6kat 0.100Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 16:34 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 04-27 23:15 | Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | BUY | 0.095 | $2.02 |
| 04-27 23:15 | Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | BUY | 0.0949823187 | $112.65 |
| 04-27 21:33 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | BUY | 0.959 | $68.09 |
| 04-27 14:33 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.35 | $249.59 |
| 04-26 16:10 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.0387192284 | $59.74 |
| 04-26 14:55 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.7995270571 | $2.8k |
| 04-25 21:14 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $150.34 |
| 04-23 04:18 | Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 04-23 03:56 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.3020286402 | $240.86 |
| 04-22 22:28 | Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 04-22 22:27 | Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 04-22 22:27 | Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 04-22 22:27 | Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 04-22 22:27 | Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |