tradingdecs
0x7fc6e183e48e2f7658cd825ff4f40e44e9327306
- Realised P&L
- $-23.5k
- Volume
- $1.99M
- Markets traded
- 589
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded589
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.358US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$2.1kat 0.146US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.054Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.010Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$1.0kat 0.136Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 18:49 | Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference? | SELL | 0.991 | $39.63 |
| 07-29 18:45 | Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.43 |
| 07-29 18:45 | Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.11 |
| 07-29 18:36 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 07-29 18:33 | Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3000534125 | $5.06 |
| 07-29 18:28 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0198833333 | $35.79 |
| 07-29 18:27 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.018 | $36.00 |
| 07-29 17:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.298 | $22.35 |
| 07-29 17:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 07-29 17:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.57 | $15.39 |
| 07-27 16:36 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | SELL | 0.963 | $288.94 |
| 07-25 17:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 07-23 20:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.014 | $14.00 |
| 07-23 20:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $265.25 |
| 07-23 20:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.257 | $102.80 |