Tenebrus7
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
- Realised P&L
- $152.2k
- Volume
- $73.18M
- Markets traded
- 4,356
- Open portfolio
- $286.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,356
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$57.9kat 0.005US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$47.3kat 0.036Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$25.1kat 0.090Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$19.8kat 0.031Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$17.9kat 0.030Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.68 | $22.31 |
| 08-02 22:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $151.88 |
| 08-02 21:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.88 | $142.49 |
| 08-02 20:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $672.63 |
| 08-02 20:01 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.45 |
| 08-02 18:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.7k |
| 08-02 12:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.9k |
| 08-02 07:31 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $434.53 |
| 08-02 07:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.682 | $15.79 |
| 08-02 07:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | BUY | 0.77 | $203.65 |
| 08-02 07:24 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.19 | $149.07 |
| 08-02 06:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $5.4k |
| 08-02 06:26 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.6k |
| 08-02 06:10 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.4k |
| 08-02 06:08 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $65.91 |