PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Tenebrus7

0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8

Realised P&L
$152.2k
Volume
$73.18M
Markets traded
4,356
Open portfolio
$286.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,356
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9030.951$14.0k+$705.87
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · No0.8390.967$12.4k+$1.6k
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.8650.887$11.3k+$286.08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9230.945$10.3k+$238.30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.7030.725$10.2k+$317.77
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8210.795$8.7k$286.88
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8110.795$8.6k$175.67
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.915$8.5k+$139.98
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.8490.945$7.0k+$709.82
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes0.4260.645$5.9k+$2.0k
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.6760.655$5.9k$185.44
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · No0.9911.000$5.9k+$50.10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.5500.575$5.6k+$243.75
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes0.8310.992$5.6k+$903.62
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9200.935$5.5k+$86.19

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.68$22.31
08-02 22:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.59$151.88
08-02 21:21Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.88$142.49
08-02 20:16US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?SELL0.29$672.63
08-02 20:01Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?SELL0.23$0.45
08-02 18:51Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?SELL0.86$1.7k
08-02 12:42US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.52$2.9k
08-02 07:31Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?BUY0.91$434.53
08-02 07:29US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?BUY0.682$15.79
08-02 07:28Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?BUY0.77$203.65
08-02 07:24Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.19$149.07
08-02 06:27Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.83$5.4k
08-02 06:26Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.17$3.6k
08-02 06:10Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.8$2.4k
08-02 06:08Iran leadership change by September 30?SELL0.07$65.91