duref
0xb19c8578b12f044c5ad6ef7144bbea3f71af2467
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $582.3k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$471.47at 0.027Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$331.77at 0.490Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$207.36at 0.182Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
- +$117.39at 0.755Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
- +$90.00at 0.850Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 11:52 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.044 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 03:04 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $87.15 |
| 07-31 21:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.71 |
| 07-31 21:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $334.62 |
| 07-31 21:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $234.45 |
| 07-27 14:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $8.00 |
| 07-27 14:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 07-26 20:52 | Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 07-24 10:27 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.0061595614 | $0.85 |
| 07-23 19:55 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.32 |
| 07-23 19:37 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 07-23 17:48 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.70 |
| 07-23 17:16 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.014 | $0.91 |
| 07-23 17:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.081 | $9.40 |
| 07-23 12:27 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.0161262549 | $2.01 |