PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

duref

0xb19c8578b12f044c5ad6ef7144bbea3f71af2467

Realised P&L
$-1.4k
Volume
$582.3k
Markets traded
129
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded129
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample36 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes0.1340.115$386.80$64.05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0260.035$302.46+$81.82
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes0.0670.055$221.66$48.83
New pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0700.065$53.90$4.55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0610.021$36.12$71.04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0120.013$17.66+$1.58
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? · Yes0.0050.006$11.44+$2.66
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0130.025$11.25+$5.20
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? · Yes0.0030.001$2.27$10.63
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0010.002$1.91+$0.64
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0010.002$1.83+$0.61
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? · Yes0.0050.001$1.49$14.00
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? · Yes0.1040.015$0.75$4.45
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? · Yes0.0020.004$0.66+$0.34
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? · No0.1200.018$0.63$3.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 11:52Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.044$2.20
08-01 03:04Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.15$87.15
07-31 21:47Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.14$28.71
07-31 21:22Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.13$334.62
07-31 21:21Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.07$234.45
07-27 14:47Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$8.00
07-27 14:46Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.002$20.00
07-26 20:52Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETBUY0.28$1.40
07-24 10:27Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.0061595614$0.85
07-23 19:55Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.01$0.32
07-23 19:37Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.011$1.10
07-23 17:48Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.015$0.70
07-23 17:16Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.014$0.91
07-23 17:15Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.081$9.40
07-23 12:27Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.0161262549$2.01