TwoEyes
0xb1a279adb096d316b1b168993e8ed976d3cd372a
- Realised P&L
- $228.2k
- Volume
- $16.50M
- Markets traded
- 619
- Open portfolio
- $79.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded619
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$161.4kat 0.971Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
- +$116.0kat 0.104Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$53.0kat 0.572Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$50.6kat 0.061Will the government shutdown end November 12?
- +$46.1kat 0.781Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 20:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.53 | $13.3k |
| 07-29 18:49 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.5k |
| 07-29 18:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $330.96 |
| 07-29 18:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6539316002 | $2.4k |
| 07-29 18:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.8k |
| 07-29 17:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.757 | $20.8k |
| 07-28 18:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.793 | $1.6k |
| 07-27 15:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.04 | $73.10 |
| 07-27 15:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.722 | $6.2k |
| 07-24 17:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7409881572 | $37.8k |
| 07-23 21:25 | Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? | BUY | 0.8370814748 | $608.02 |
| 07-23 21:13 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.261 | $261.00 |
| 07-23 21:08 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.956 | $1.6k |
| 07-17 19:03 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $4.6k |
| 07-17 18:59 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0395422514 | $2.2k |