PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

zthunderfury

0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb

Realised P&L
$20.5k
Volume
$5.09M
Markets traded
451
Open portfolio
$226.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded451
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · No0.9430.983$28.9k+$1.2k
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · No0.8830.967$26.0k+$2.3k
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8480.855$25.8k+$210.44
GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No0.8020.895$23.9k+$2.5k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9400.961$23.6k+$507.03
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9410.955$14.5k+$207.48
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · No0.7430.885$13.3k+$2.1k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9610.982$10.3k+$218.76
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9230.951$9.9k+$284.34
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · No0.9600.976$9.8k+$155.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7130.805$8.2k+$941.47
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.792$6.0k+$2.2k
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.9220.984$5.6k+$350.88
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.8500.900$3.9k+$213.53
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.6830.695$3.7k+$61.29

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 10:45US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?BUY0.779$3.90
08-02 07:58Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.999$1.9k
08-01 18:23Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?BUY0.9798725416$129.54
08-01 18:15Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.997$1.2k
08-01 18:13Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.74$7.5k
08-01 16:38Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.54$1.80
08-01 04:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.4246647774$364.15
08-01 04:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.51$327.42
07-31 19:57Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.58$638.95
07-31 18:44Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?SELL0.999$8.2k
07-31 17:53Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?SELL0.21$98.07
07-31 05:15Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.93$1.0k
07-31 02:02Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.85$4.25
07-30 15:53Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.8502215614$4.8k
07-30 02:36Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.88$1.2k