0xd01696cf3f9cdbee754526b3a2f903cd20464496
- Realised P&L
- $94.00
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $128.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.107 | $71.45 | +$41.45 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.095 | $14.62 | −$5.38 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.065 | $12.13 | −$37.87 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.195 | $11.47 | +$1.47 |
| Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.048 | $9.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.036 | $7.34 | −$2.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$114.29at 0.208Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$-1.00at 0.006Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-1.00at 0.004Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-10.00at 0.089Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 12:45 | Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.0490393197 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 12:45 | Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.0490196078 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 12:44 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0451367553 | $30.00 |
| 07-29 12:43 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999951 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 12:42 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.207920787 | $30.00 |
| 06-08 15:38 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2678571399 | $50.00 |
| 06-03 20:30 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 12:53 | Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 12:52 | Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 12:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0879999852 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 09:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |