McRae
0xde63827b8f8ddd627ad9d7e0b09e8cc49bc446c2
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $334.6k
- Markets traded
- 617
- Open portfolio
- $682.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded617
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.088Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- +$215.17at 0.566Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$158.91at 0.186Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- +$157.77at 0.080Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$153.14at 0.190Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 04:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 03:44 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2? | BUY | 0.0233009485 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 03:43 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.1559666782 | $4.49 |
| 08-01 16:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4137930906 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 16:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 16:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.2992996388 | $15.00 |
| 07-15 17:23 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5424999965 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 19:32 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.2025000084 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 19:32 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3924999678 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 19:31 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.87 | $9.08 |
| 07-14 19:11 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |