PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Melody626

0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9

Realised P&L
$88.1k
Volume
$33.60M
Markets traded
1,380
Open portfolio
$604.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,380
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes0.8101.000$138.5k+$26.3k
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? · Yes0.4841.000$110.0k+$56.7k
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? · Yes0.7711.000$64.7k+$14.8k
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? · No0.7380.726$47.2k$804.71
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No0.7770.972$33.5k+$6.7k
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party? · No0.6861.000$32.5k+$10.2k
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary? · Yes0.6851.000$26.5k+$8.3k
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes0.4770.540$22.2k+$2.6k
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.7370.675$20.1k$1.8k
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? · Yes0.7940.991$19.5k+$3.9k
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? · Yes0.6811.000$18.8k+$6.0k
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? · Yes0.5650.985$17.0k+$7.2k
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? · Yes0.7350.825$14.9k+$1.6k
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes0.7420.972$13.6k+$3.2k
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes0.6450.645$5.5k+$2.68

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 20:59Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.1241621883$30.87
08-02 19:11Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?BUY0.77$3.1k
08-02 16:48Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?BUY0.79$49.25
08-02 05:46US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.6792164268$1.7k
08-02 00:57Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.61$152.50
08-02 00:57Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?BUY0.79$24.23
08-02 00:56Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.6076666389$72.91
08-02 00:56Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.6$29.00
08-02 00:56Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 370m and 380m?BUY0.0053622731$0.77
08-02 00:54Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.55$110.00
08-02 00:53Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.5272813767$446.13
08-02 00:50Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?BUY0.7252360515$50.69
08-02 00:50Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.45$90.00
08-01 22:51Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.445$89.00
08-01 19:09Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?BUY0.3977829154$67.10