PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Umaroth

0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d

Realised P&L
$16.4k
Volume
$12.10M
Markets traded
3,480
Open portfolio
$10.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,480
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.4650.425$1.7k$159.99
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No0.6460.685$1.4k+$78.61
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.4530.395$1.3k$196.99
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes0.3920.335$1.3k$224.23
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2960.220$1.3k$433.83
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.3040.304$868.23+$1.43
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2460.278$863.85+$98.06
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No0.7110.725$632.92+$12.27
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.5500.315$315.00$235.00
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes0.3570.220$312.83$195.00
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? · Yes0.3930.744$177.84+$83.73
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · No0.4500.770$140.00+$58.18
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · Yes0.5500.570$99.66+$3.48
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? · No0.1000.031$68.45$152.24
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? · No0.6300.775$4.63+$0.87

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 16:50Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?SELL0.6117500569$349.56
08-01 15:34Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.63$50.10
08-01 12:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?SELL0.38$174.80
08-01 10:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.33$151.80
07-30 08:45US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.43$4.30
07-30 07:11Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.08$636.55
07-29 10:58US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.5203584$520.36
07-28 18:45Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?SELL0.001$0.32
07-27 15:03Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?BUY0.13$130.00
07-24 15:41Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?SELL0.999$799.20
07-24 13:31Israel closes its airspace by July 31?SELL0.33$292.42
07-24 12:25US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.982$589.20
07-23 15:56Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.9482821667$568.97
07-23 10:14Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?BUY0.82$476.02
07-23 09:06US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?BUY0.62$124.00