Umaroth
0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d
- Realised P&L
- $16.4k
- Volume
- $12.10M
- Markets traded
- 3,480
- Open portfolio
- $10.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,480
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.0kat 0.166Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.5kat 0.102Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
- +$3.2kat 0.303Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
- +$2.3kat 0.864US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.506Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 16:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | SELL | 0.6117500569 | $349.56 |
| 08-01 15:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.63 | $50.10 |
| 08-01 12:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | SELL | 0.38 | $174.80 |
| 08-01 10:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.33 | $151.80 |
| 07-30 08:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 07-30 07:11 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.08 | $636.55 |
| 07-29 10:58 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.5203584 | $520.36 |
| 07-28 18:45 | Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.32 |
| 07-27 15:03 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 07-24 15:41 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.999 | $799.20 |
| 07-24 13:31 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.33 | $292.42 |
| 07-24 12:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.982 | $589.20 |
| 07-23 15:56 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.9482821667 | $568.97 |
| 07-23 10:14 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | BUY | 0.82 | $476.02 |
| 07-23 09:06 | US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $124.00 |