truthteller
0x30e443872ddf63b2908a49f92cd690c304a55102
- Realised P&L
- $192.1k
- Volume
- $144.22M
- Markets traded
- 2,426
- Open portfolio
- $34.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,426
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.0kat 0.058Will another man win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$103.5kat 0.107Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$70.4kat 0.032Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$45.0kat 0.248Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night
- +$35.9kat 0.034Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.4k |
| 08-02 17:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $198.31 |
| 08-02 16:55 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.58 | $901.89 |
| 08-02 16:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.5k |
| 08-02 16:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.9902272674 | $1.0k |
| 08-02 16:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.9796287481 | $2.2k |
| 08-02 16:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | SELL | 0.960257389 | $2.3k |
| 08-02 16:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.2k |
| 08-02 01:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.3k |
| 08-02 01:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.49 | $98.00 |
| 08-02 01:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.48 | $336.00 |
| 08-02 01:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.47 | $32.90 |
| 08-02 01:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.4881026333 | $1.5k |
| 08-02 00:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.47 | $94.00 |
| 08-02 00:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |