taerv534
0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc
- Realised P&L
- $87.4k
- Volume
- $5.45M
- Markets traded
- 1,888
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,888
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.8kat 0.300Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
- +$5.7kat 0.023Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.4kat 0.858Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
- +$4.8kat 0.021Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$4.0kat 0.016Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 06:57 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 02:14 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.035 | $14.95 |
| 07-31 01:48 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $9.37 |
| 07-30 01:58 | NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $16.11 |
| 07-28 23:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | BUY | 0.03 | $30.00 |
| 07-28 23:20 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.0672542543 | $6.72 |
| 07-28 23:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $110.00 |
| 07-27 06:02 | Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan? | BUY | 0.0989985486 | $68.21 |
| 07-27 03:38 | Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan? | BUY | 0.2477459334 | $31.98 |
| 07-27 01:56 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0196935766 | $27.79 |
| 07-25 06:31 | Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 07-16 21:44 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 07-16 21:43 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $66.00 |
| 07-15 18:20 | Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 07-15 18:19 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.43 |