PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

taerv534

0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc

Realised P&L
$87.4k
Volume
$5.45M
Markets traded
1,888
Open portfolio
$3.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,888
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0190.015$499.72$115.03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.6960.905$285.68+$65.91
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.4100.795$224.19+$108.56
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.009$222.42+$66.68
US military draft authorized in 2026? · No0.8000.953$183.18+$29.35
Will US annex any territory in 2026? · No0.8000.967$147.39+$25.40
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? · No0.1820.911$134.90+$108.02
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.5000.925$134.13+$61.61
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.7610.945$123.79+$24.11
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.7270.870$122.30+$20.17
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · No0.5850.974$108.34+$43.23
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.8810.975$107.19+$10.24
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.8400.955$91.68+$11.04
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · No0.4910.740$82.88+$27.84
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0100.013$80.80+$20.65

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 06:57Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.002$2.00
07-31 02:14Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?BUY0.035$14.95
07-31 01:48Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.004$9.37
07-30 01:58NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?BUY0.24$16.11
07-28 23:23Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?BUY0.03$30.00
07-28 23:20Iran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY0.0672542543$6.72
07-28 23:08Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.11$110.00
07-27 06:02Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?BUY0.0989985486$68.21
07-27 03:38Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?BUY0.2477459334$31.98
07-27 01:56Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0196935766$27.79
07-25 06:31Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?BUY0.76$22.80
07-16 21:44Israel closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.12$24.00
07-16 21:43Iran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY0.33$66.00
07-15 18:20Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.001$0.03
07-15 18:19Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.001$1.43