PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Mikelaawrey

0x6bc74c392c320cfe10d5be61db978a58c8444ad4

Realised P&L
$57.9k
Volume
$563.0k
Markets traded
457
Open portfolio
$2.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar10.3%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded457
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration51.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.8700.450$548.63$512.32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.4630.230$358.80$363.81
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.3270.205$199.78$119.01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.6510.345$186.54$165.46
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · Yes0.3220.140$169.40$220.29
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No0.7000.430$152.19$95.57
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · Yes0.1350.292$113.53+$61.20
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · Yes0.1820.105$108.68$80.32
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.4770.230$103.50$111.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No0.5230.325$97.50$59.50
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1300.135$86.19+$3.19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · No0.1970.125$75.00$43.00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.6770.196$64.68$158.71
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · Yes0.4000.260$49.40$26.60
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1550.205$28.19+$6.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 20:02US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9$540.00
08-01 13:02Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?BUY0.32$11.77
08-01 13:02Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.359999999$150.00
08-01 00:55US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9$180.00
07-31 21:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.6971306055$100.00
07-31 10:54US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.7799999979$15.00
07-30 20:15Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.21$42.00
07-29 23:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?SELL0.999$1.3k
07-29 22:26US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.888$127.06
07-29 21:30US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.897$89.70
07-29 20:00Iran full airspace closure by August 15?BUY0.32$26.92
07-29 18:58Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?BUY0.29$58.00
07-29 18:57US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.8729999919$100.00
07-29 17:26Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.36$75.60
07-29 17:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.876$175.20