Mikelaawrey
0x6bc74c392c320cfe10d5be61db978a58c8444ad4
- Realised P&L
- $57.9k
- Volume
- $563.0k
- Markets traded
- 457
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded457
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.0kat 0.143Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.129Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
- +$4.1kat 0.029US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
- +$4.0kat 0.448Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$3.5kat 0.140US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 20:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $540.00 |
| 08-01 13:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.32 | $11.77 |
| 08-01 13:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.359999999 | $150.00 |
| 08-01 00:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 07-31 21:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.6971306055 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 10:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7799999979 | $15.00 |
| 07-30 20:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 07-29 23:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 07-29 22:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.888 | $127.06 |
| 07-29 21:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.897 | $89.70 |
| 07-29 20:00 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.32 | $26.92 |
| 07-29 18:58 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 07-29 18:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.8729999919 | $100.00 |
| 07-29 17:26 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.36 | $75.60 |
| 07-29 17:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.876 | $175.20 |