wagmiser
0xef6278f3e13d4a516fbb14b0d7ad2649ce990179
- Realised P&L
- $-7.0k
- Volume
- $659.4k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$287.79at 0.363Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$285.80at 0.075Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$284.00at 0.290Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$271.96at 0.320Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$222.99at 0.786Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 19:23 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999998 | $333.00 |
| 07-30 15:31 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.955 | $1.8k |
| 07-29 23:57 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.9556626472 | $1.7k |
| 07-28 18:26 | Will Trump say "Sister" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | SELL | 0.718504 | $107.78 |
| 07-28 18:06 | Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.7699999948 | $80.00 |
| 07-28 18:06 | Will Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | SELL | 0.5633416185 | $97.46 |
| 07-28 17:51 | Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.986 | $49.30 |
| 07-28 17:50 | Will Trump say "See You Soon" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 07-28 17:49 | Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.8 | $50.00 |
| 07-28 17:47 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | SELL | 0.74 | $35.29 |
| 07-28 16:34 | Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.980662844 | $427.57 |
| 07-28 16:32 | Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.7568064516 | $117.30 |
| 07-28 16:31 | Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.7399999988 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 18:18 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during Michigan remarks? | SELL | 0.79 | $72.68 |
| 07-27 18:17 | Will Trump say "Mars" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $30.00 |