shorny
0xf807bf2f9de09f9562009575ca77d67cafe9c5dc
- Realised P&L
- $-13.4k
- Volume
- $806.8k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.364Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.5kat 0.300Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$1.4kat 0.032Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$1.4kat 0.139Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.3kat 0.137Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 16:57 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.0108361079 | $31.54 |
| 07-31 16:56 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.44 |
| 07-28 22:39 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.1605742 | $160.57 |
| 07-28 04:09 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $85.00 |
| 07-28 04:08 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 07-28 04:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 07-27 11:19 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $39.83 |
| 07-27 11:18 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $40.00 |
| 07-27 10:43 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.0780246699 | $44.91 |
| 07-27 10:42 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $41.93 |
| 07-26 01:18 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.6365123464 | $290.51 |
| 07-25 16:49 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $285.00 |
| 07-25 16:35 | UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.16 | $5.44 |
| 07-25 15:43 | UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.4002841875 | $65.92 |
| 07-25 15:03 | Fight to Go the Distance? | BUY | 0.249837 | $99.93 |