PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

shorny

0xf807bf2f9de09f9562009575ca77d67cafe9c5dc

Realised P&L
$-13.4k
Volume
$806.8k
Markets traded
144
Open portfolio
$3.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded144
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No0.5650.585$1.4k+$49.18
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · No0.5990.415$1.2k$544.66
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · Yes0.4270.140$361.63$742.82
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.0790.065$70.21$15.53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0740.021$42.82$105.30
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · No0.7610.975$0.97+$0.21
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.6400.345$0.34$0.30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2960.140$0.28$0.31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.2330.110$0.11$0.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.055$0.06$0.07
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? · Yes0.2600.044$0.04$0.22
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0360.036$0.04+$0.00
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? · No0.5020.000$0.00$1.4k
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries · Phoenix Mercury0.0800.000$0.00$102.04
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes0.1910.000$0.00$195.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 16:57Iran full airspace closure by July 31?SELL0.0108361079$31.54
07-31 16:56Iran full airspace closure by July 31?SELL0.016$1.44
07-28 22:39Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?SELL0.1605742$160.57
07-28 04:09US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.001$85.00
07-28 04:08US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.39$39.00
07-28 04:08US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?SELL0.46$46.00
07-27 11:19Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.08$39.83
07-27 11:18Israel closes its airspace by July 31?SELL0.04$40.00
07-27 10:43Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.0780246699$44.91
07-27 10:42Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?SELL0.07$41.93
07-26 01:18US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.6365123464$290.51
07-25 16:49US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?SELL0.57$285.00
07-25 16:35UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.16$5.44
07-25 15:43UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)BUY0.4002841875$65.92
07-25 15:03Fight to Go the Distance?BUY0.249837$99.93